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Canadians divided over whether COVID-19 cases are rising or falling

Forty-three per cent of Quebecers say cases have increased in the past two weeks, while 34 per cent say they’ve decreased and 23 per cent say they’ve stayed the same.

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Is the worst behind us?

Or are we heading into a second, even deadlier wave of the coronavirus pandemic?

Canadians are all over the map on whether infections are rising, dropping or staying the same, a new poll for the Association for Canadian Studies (ACS) reveals.

More than two Quebecers out of five say the situation is getting worse, while in Ontario two-thirds of residents say it’s getting better, the Léger poll suggests.

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It shows that people who think the situation is worsening believe it will continue to deteriorate, while those who think it’s been getting better say it will keep improving, said Jack Jedwab, president of the ACS and chair of the COVID-19 Social Impacts Network.

“Those who believe there has been a spike in the last two weeks are also of the opinion that the next two weeks will see a yet greater increase,” he said.

Those people are more fearful of contracting the virus than those who think the situation is improving, he added.

Forty-three per cent of Quebecers say cases have increased in the past two weeks, while 34 per cent say they’ve decreased and 23 per cent say they’ve stayed the same.

In Ontario, 65 per cent of residents say cases have decreased in the past two weeks, while 11 per cent say they’ve increased and 24 per cent say they’ve stayed the same.

In Atlantic Canada, 45 per cent say cases have declined, 11 per cent say they’ve risen and 44 per cent say they have stayed the same.

Western Canadians are most likely to say the situation is worsening, especially in Alberta, where 71 per cent of residents say cases have increased and only 11 per cent say they’ve decreased. Eighteen per cent of Albertans say the number of cases has stayed the same.

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Fifty-eight per cent of Manitoba and Saskatchewan residents and 51 per cent of British Columbians say cases have been rising, while 24 per cent of Manitoba and Saskatchewan residents and 27 per cent of British Columbians say they’ve dropped.

On average, 42 per cent of Canadians say cases have gone down while 34 per cent say they’ve gone up and 24 per cent say they’ve stayed the same.

The outlook is significantly darker in the United States, where 65 per cent of residents say the number of cases has risen, 15 per cent say it’s dropped and 20 per cent say it’s stayed the same.

There are noticeable regional disparities in the U.S., with only 36 per cent of residents in the Northeast saying the pandemic is growing. In the Western U.S., 78 per cent say it is worsening — an opinion shared by 74 per cent of Southerners.

In Quebec, the number of cases peaked in May, when as many as 1,000 people a day were testing positive for COVID-19 and more than 100 people were dying of it daily.

Cases dropped sharply in June, before rising somewhat in July to more than 100 a day.

However, Jedwab noted that testing in Quebec has increased dramatically, which is partly responsible for the rise.

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“We need to be very cautious” of how the data is interpreted, he said. “To say there has been a spike in Quebec isn’t accurate.”

On Sunday, Quebec reported 169 new cases of COVID-19, for a total of 58,583 since the beginning of the pandemic. Across Canada, there have been 113,556 cases to date.

Quebec reported one death Sunday.

Ontario reported 137 new cases Sunday, for a total of 38,680. Four deaths were reported Sunday.

The Léger poll surveyed 1,524 Canadians and 1,004 Americans online from July 17 to 19. All were recruited randomly. No margin of error can be given for an online poll, but a comparable phone survey would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.52 per cent, 19 times out of 20 for the Canadian sample, and of 3.08 per cent, 19 times out of 20 for the U.S. sample.

mscott@postmedia.com

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